PMA’s construction scheduling and software experts will be attending the 2023 Construction CPM Conference.

Construction CPM Conference

January 15 – 18, 2023
PMA will be at table #33

Removing the Early-Dates Bias in CPM Risk Analysis

Presented by Tim Mather

Learn how to overcome optimistic bias in CPM simulation by modeling float consumption at various levels to more accurately predict completion probability. The current standard practice in the industry is to perform risk analysis using the early start dates exclusively from the deterministic schedule. This method does not closely match the actual real-world conditions of construction projects. In Tim Mather’s session, you’ll learn why float-use risk matters and discover the only known solution for modeling it. PMA’s approach to risk analysis is based on over 20 years of experience on more than 350 projects with combined values exceeding $50 billion.

Removing the Early‐Dates Bias in CPM Risk Analysis
Learn more about the pitfalls of CPM-based risk analysis modeling.

The Critical Path Method (CPM) schedules activities to start on early dates, which results in an unrealistic completion distribution in CPM risk analysis. CPM risk analysis tools, thus, cannot model what commonly occurs when a project unfolds and activities start on dates later than early dates due to floating or pacing decisions based on schedule progress.